5 Major San Diego Development Battles in 2026: What Point Loma, Pacific Beach, and College Area Homeowners Need to Know
TL;DR
- Five Major Projects: 33,000+ housing units across Midway Rising (4,254), School District sites (1,500), Golden Hill (186), Pacific Beach tower (23 stories), and College Area/Clairemont plans (31,750 capacity)
- Development Impact Zones: Properties within 0.5-1.5 miles face construction disruption lasting 2-10 years, creating temporary value depression of 10-20%
- Market Context: San Diego inventory already surged 66.6% year-over-year with 4.0% price declines, compounding development zone challenges
- Cash Buyer Advantage: 7-14 day closings provide certainty before groundbreaking, eliminating construction-zone negotiating liability for traditional buyers
- Timeline Certainty: College Area/Clairemont plans most certain (approved Dec 2025), Turquoise Tower most uncertain (litigation pending)
Five controversial housing developments will reshape San Diego's real estate landscape in 2026, adding capacity for over 33,000 new homes across neighborhoods from Point Loma to College Area. As inventory has already surged 66.6% year-over-year and home values declined 1.7% according to Zillow, these simultaneous mega-projects create compound pressure for homeowners in development impact zones.
From the California Supreme Court-tested Midway Rising arena redevelopment to San Diego Unified's historic 1,500-unit workforce housing plan that could double all school district housing built statewide since 2002, understanding how these battles affect your neighborhood is critical for 2026 sell-or-wait decisions.
The Five Development Battles Reshaping San Diego
Midway Rising (4,254+ units)
Despite the California Supreme Court upholding the 30-foot coastal height limit in October 2025, developers are proceeding under state density bonus law, with City Council consideration expected in early 2026. The project would create 2,000 affordable apartments for households earning 80% or below area median income, impacting Point Loma and Ocean Beach within a 1.5-mile radius.
San Diego Unified School District Housing (1,500 units)
The school board approved five workforce housing projects in December 2025 that could generate $504 million over 99 years. The largest site at Eugene Brucker Education Center in University Heights/Hillcrest proposes 952 units, while additional projects target Linda Vista (327 units across two sites), Barrio Logan (87 units), and Old Town (140 units). If completed, this plan would double the number of homes built by school districts across California since 2002.
Golden Hill Lawson Project (186 units)
This eight-story development near a planned high-frequency bus station survived a Superior Court challenge in December 2025 when Judge Joel Wohlfeil declined to extend a restraining order, though final approval remains uncertain.
Pacific Beach Turquoise Tower (23 stories)
Developer Kalonymus claims automatic approval under state housing law, arguing the city missed a deadline for project review. The controversial 23-story tower has sparked intense community opposition since its 2024 proposal.
College Area & Clairemont Community Plans (31,750 homes capacity)
The City Council approved comprehensive plan updates on December 16, 2025—the first overhaul in 30+ years. College Area adds capacity for 17,750 homes near SDSU and along College Avenue, Montezuma Road, and El Cajon Boulevard, while Clairemont adds 14,000 homes near trolley stations.
Why Development Impact Zones Create Selling Pressure in 2026
Homeowners within 0.5-1.5 miles of these projects face a critical decision window before construction visibility impacts buyer demand. With San Diego's market already showing buyer-favorable conditions—including a 66.6% inventory surge, 4.0% year-over-year price decline to an average of $968,817, and falling rents for six consecutive months—traditional sales in development zones face extended timelines.
Construction Phase Value Impact
Major developments typically create temporary value depression during multi-year construction phases, particularly for properties within immediate impact zones. However, post-completion effects vary: some areas appreciate as new amenities arrive, while others face ongoing density concerns. The uncertainty itself becomes a negotiating liability when traditional buyers compare your property to similar homes outside construction zones.
Cash buyers offer a strategic exit for homeowners wanting certainty before groundbreaking. With 7-14 day closings versus 40+ day traditional timelines in the current buyer's market, and as-is purchases that eliminate repair requirements, cash transactions provide a premium for avoiding construction uncertainty discounts.
As Mayor Gloria stated in his January 15, 2026 State of the City address, he remains committed to pushing forward these projects, making 2026 a pivotal year for development impact zones across San Diego.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know if my home is in a development impact zone?
Properties within 0.5-1.5 miles of the five major projects may experience impacts. For Midway Rising, this includes Point Loma and Ocean Beach neighborhoods. University Heights, Hillcrest, Linda Vista, and Barrio Logan residents should assess proximity to the five school district sites. Pacific Beach homeowners near Turquoise Street face direct impacts, while College Area and Clairemont residents are within the 31,750-home capacity increase zones. Review the December 16, 2025 community plan updates for specific parcel-level zoning changes.
Should I sell before construction starts or wait until project completion?
Historical data shows properties in 0-0.5 mile zones of major developments often experience 10-20% temporary value depression during construction phases lasting 2-10 years depending on project scale. Midway Rising's 10-year timeline and the phased nature of school district projects mean extended disruption periods. Combined with San Diego's current buyer's market (66.6% inventory surge, 4.0% price declines), selling before visible construction activity preserves value and avoids compounding traditional sale challenges with construction-zone buyer hesitation.
Which of the five battles will definitely happen versus uncertain projects?
The College Area and Clairemont community plans took effect in early 2026 after December 16, 2025 City Council approval, making them the most certain—though actual construction will phase over many years. San Diego Unified's five workforce housing projects received board approval in December 2025 with $504 million in projected revenue, suggesting strong momentum. Midway Rising awaits early 2026 City Council decision, while Turquoise Tower faces likely litigation over automatic approval claims. The Golden Hill Lawson project survived its initial court challenge but faces ongoing opposition, making its timeline most uncertain.